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Recess That Isn't Child's Play

Are we in a recession? More importantly, what should you do if we are?

By Jeff Wuorio

The word “recession” has been buzzing around Americans’ heads for the past several months, like a bee that might sting if it ever found a place to land. And, like a pesky yellowjacket that eventually moves on, a recession may boil down to more worry than actual fact. But just in case a recession should decide to land, it doesn’t hurt to be prepared with a few strategies and ideas to help minimize its effects.

First off, it’s helpful to know what a recession is. Simply put, a recession—like its name implies—reflects an economy that is shrinking in size rather than growing. The barometer for this is the country’s gross domestic product—the total market value of goods and services produced in a year. If that goes down for about six months, economists say a recession has taken hold.

But a recession isn’t as horrific as it might sound. For one thing, it’s part of the normal business cycle. For another, we’re likely not talking about years of economic catastrophe like the country experienced during the Great Depression—recessions, as a rule, generally last from 12 to 18 months.

Know, too, that predictions of a recession often can be as reliable as Elvis sightings. While economists were accurate in predicting a brief recession in 1990, subsequent forecasts of recessions later in that decade never came to pass.

But that’s not to imply a recession is a paper tiger; nor is it impossible that a recession may, in fact, hit the country some time in the near future. That said, here are some ideas and strategies:

First off, since a recession means a downturn in the economy, it’s generally a good idea to play things close to the vest so far as employment goes. If you have a good job—or have been promised one—covet it. As things tighten, many employers are forced to cut back on hiring (some go so far as to trim payroll to compensate for lower business activity). A recession isn’t the time to do a lot of casting around for a new job—not only will there be fewer from which to choose, you don’t want to jeopardize the one you already have. Instead, if you’d like to switch jobs, try waiting things out until conditions improve.

Likewise, a recession isn’t necessarily the best time to load up on debt of any kind. Again, if your job situation becomes dicey as the economy heads south, you don’t want to be saddled with bills you may have difficulty paying off. In general, manufacturers of luxury goods and cars are the ones to suffer the most in a recession because consumers simply don’t feel comfortable laying out that kind of cash. That’s a very good lead to follow.

Instead, a recession actually provides an ideal opportunity to trim back on your overall debt. Since you’ve already decided to hold off on buying that new SUV until things look a bit brighter, you may want to consider earmarking that money for debt payoff. Start with credit cards, particularly high interest ones. Rather than just paying off the monthly minimum, pare down what you actually owe by adding a couple hundred dollars or more to your payment. Consider that a return on an investment—for a card hitting you with 15% interest or even more, that’s a great payback in any economy.

From there, you can look to paying down any sort of student loans that you may still be carrying. However, this isn’t quite as essential as credit cards—not only are you paying a whole lot less interest with student loans, they’re tax deductible as well. Still, they are a type of debt, so tackle them if other things are free and clear.

As for investing, a recession doesn’t necessarily mean any sweeping, wholesale changes in where you put your money. For the most part, the same principles of sound investing continue to hold true—if you’re buying stocks or mutual funds, be sure to diversify with regard to risk and the types of companies in which you’re investing. One variant to follow—if you’re buying individual stocks, remember to steer away from automakers and luxury goods companies who, as we discussed earlier, will be feeling the bite of a recession the most. Instead, companies that do well in a recession are producers of staples: goods and services that people buy no matter what, such as food and clothing.

Even though stocks and mutual funds offer the most long-term growth potential, it’s also never a bad idea to be a bit more conservative during a recession. That may mean increasing the amount of money you put into fixed-income choices, such as money market funds and Certificates of Deposit. That earns you some interest and keeps the money on the sidelines until conditions improve.

Jeff Wuorio is the author of Got Money? (Amacom Books). His new book, CNBC's Guide to the Markets, is due out in December, 2001.

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